March Madness is here!
A blog entry from Rich Chen, DrJays.com’s Marketing Analyst:
The NCAA Basketball Tournament is coming up soon and the expert picks are in!
Do you have what it takes to win your office pool? Lucky for you, we’ve got the tips you need to make sure your bracket doesn’t get busted.
Now I don’t know much about college ball, but what I do know is numbers. Numbers don’t lie and here are four tidbits to help you out based on what the numbers for the last 10 years show:
1. The NCAA Seeding Committee ain’t no joke. Teams are seeded for a reason. 1 seeds have a 45% chance of making the final four, 2 seeds a 20% chance, 3 seeds a 12.5% chance, and 4 seeds a 7.5% chance. Almost down the line, if you have a higher seed, the numbers prove you have a better chance of making the final four.
2. Looking for an upset? I can’t tell you precisely who’s going to get upset, but I can tell you which seeds won’t lose. We all know 1 seeds have never lost in the first round, but did you know that there’s a 92% chance that a top 4 seeds will make It through the first round? If you want to pick your upset, don’t pick it here unless you’re feeling lucky.
3. Match-ups matter. When picking results for the latter rounds, watch out for certain match-ups that might prove advantageous to you and disadvantegous to the competition. Here’s a list of the most likely upsets for each round:
- 1st Round: 5 v 12 No major suprises here. The higher the seed, the better the chance of winning. The 9 seed has a slight 52.5% edge against the 8 seed but that hardly qualifies as an upset. If you must shake up your bracket early, I would go with the 5-12 matchup. The 12 seed has a 37.5% chance of winning, which is better than the 11 seed (30%) and the same as the 10 seed.
- 2nd Round: 2 v 10 Look at your bracket right now. Seriously, pick it at up and look at it. If you got the 2 seed beating the 10 seed, think again. 10 seeds have a gigantic 71% chance of taking out the 2 seed. If I’m choosing an upset, this is it.
- Sweet 16: 8 Seed The sample size isn’t that big, but historically the 8 seed has done very well once they make it to the sweet 16.
- Elite 8: 1 v2 By now all teams are battle tested and its no hold barred to the final four. Most likely you’ll have in at least one 1v2 match-up (you were paying attention to tip 1 right?). The 2 seed traditionally has the advantage in this match-up so don’t hesitate to pick the upset if you’ve got the urge.
4. Have fun with it! Look, there’s probably going to be a zillion guys in your office pool. You’re not winning if you’re not taking chances. Maybe this is the year the 16 seed beats the 1 seed. If you don’t claim to be a basketball expert, what do you have to lose? Pick the upset (and make sure you got a backup bracket so your coworkers don’t laugh at you when Pitts destroys East Tenennesee State).
We’d love to hear your thoughts on this year’s March Madness mania!