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As Iowa Caucus Approaches, Ron Paul Looks Like A Winner, While Newt Gingrich Admits Defeat

Submitted by on January 3, 2012 – 9:52 am10 Comments

The Iowa Caucus are still hours away; but well before the first vote is cast, Newt Gingrich is ceding defeat, while Ron Paul savors any place in the top three as essentially a victory- with a real chance of coming in first.

Paul is virtually tied for first with Mitt Romney, but his lead depends on maintaining an unusual coalition comprised largely of independents and Democrats. (Voters can register as Republicans on the day of the caucus.)

However, Paul and his aides have framed his campaign more as an ideological movement than the election of a single man. As recently as Friday, the candidate said he wasn’t playing “a numbers game”:

“So in many ways, it’s a political revolution to change these ideas, but it’s an intellectual revolution,” Paul explained, wrapping up a nearly hourlong speech. “It’s a change in ideas about economic policy, understanding our traditions about foreign policy, understanding monetary policy. This is where we’re making progress. This is where we have advanced so much over the last couple decades and even in the last four years.”

[via Politico]

In a bold show of confidence, Paul even returned home to Texas for the weekend, as every other candidate raced around Iowa.

Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich has a much different tone. “I don’t think I’m going to win,” he told a crowd in Independence, Iowa. However, Gingrich also told the audience that simply surviving the negative attacks of recent weeks is a victory. Just weeks ago, Gingrich was a front runner, and predicted his ultimate victory in the nomination process.

Rick Santorum is enjoying a thrust in the polls leading into the caucus, as his campaign eagerly hopes for a second or even first place finish. (A third place finish for Romney, behind Paul and Santorum, is a possible scenario that could notably affect his momentum.)

Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann lag far behind. Jon Huntsman has not campaigned in the state.

What do you think? Who will win tonight?

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  • Ron Paul, by a landslide, if there is no election fraud….

  • Sam Geoghegan says:

    The mainstream media are disgusting. Their wilful denigration of Paul should not only empower non-voters to get off their arses, but make the media eat humble pie by voting the man in.


  • Chickasaw says:

    Peace, Liberty, and Freedom through limited government and a free market society !

    Ron Paul 102 !

  • Hope for freedom says:

    The Republicans only Chance of winning is Ron Paul!. If he does not win the nomination it will be because the Media is biased against him. Since the Republicans won’t support him, i say he should run 3rd party if necessary. Not only would he take many votes from the republicans but also from democrats!

  • Crook Killa says:

    The Corporate media is as treasonous as the corrupt candidates they tout.
    Ron Paul 2012!!!

  • rob says:

    With the polls so close, it’s anybody’s guess. The Des Moines Register poll correctly predicted Obama’s victory in 08, but they were outside the margin of error on his vote totals, and they got second and third place wrong. I don’t think other pollsters did any better.

    This year figures separating Romney and Paul are way inside the margin of error. You can’t really pick between these two on the basis of the polls. Meanwhile, Santorum seems to have the momentum, but it’s still a long way to climb for him to emerge as number one.

    So it’s really guesswork. In a primary, I might think that Santorum might just be able to pull it off, but in a caucus, with little or know organization, Santorum can’t even identify his supporters much less get them to the caucuses. And when they get there, will they stick? People who have only just changed their minds can’t be regarded as solid supporters, and could easily be swayed by speeches at the caucuses themselves.

    Romney, and especially Paul, have much more solid supporters.

    Ron Paul was polling 7% in Iowa when he placed second in the Ames Straw Poll with 28% of the vote. I certainly don’t think that his organization can make that much of a difference in the caucuses, but it doesn’t have to. If organization can make a difference of two or three percent, it would be enough to deliver the state for Ron Paul.

    And if organization can’t make that much of a difference, why have candidates put so much time and money into it in the past?

    By all odds, Ron Paul should be the favorite to win.

  • [...] As Iowa Caucus Approaches, Ron Paul Looks Like A Winner, While Newt Gingrich … – DrJays…. Posted in Ron Paul | Tags: ceding-defeat, cnn, constitution, different-set, eastern-iowa, florida, gingrich, government, kansas-city, online, online-poll, romney, ron paul, sunshine-state, virtually-tied /* */ /* */ /* */ « Preferring Obama to Paul: What Does It Say About Progressive Priorities? – The Atlantic Truth is a stranger to Ron Paul, Rick Santorum – Capitol Hill Blue » ©Copyright 2011 PAULitics.US – Additional article content linked to and quoted from are the property of the respective owner(s) cited. [...]

  • mgginva says:

    Newt now can not vote in Virginia, his home state, because you have to sign a pledge there saying if you vote in the GOP primary you’ll support whoever wins. Since he claims he will not vote for Paul if he wins essentially, Newt either has to break his pledge or not vote.

    There is no prosperity without Peace.
    Ron Paul 2012

  • James says:

    Ron Paul will win, but they will fight him…

    - But freedom will win… you will pay globalist!

    You took the greatest nation on the earth and made it into the greatest debtor, you will pay.

    We will remain free and sovereign!

    No to England we are a free nation! Fuck you Queen

  • jolee says:

    R[̲̅ə̲̅٨̲̅٥̲̅٦̲̅]ution !!!!!!!!!! has come to america

    RON PAUL 2012

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